Obama pasted Hillary in South Carolina. Ted Kennedy, supposedly disgusted by the Clinton attacks on the future of the party, is going to
endorse Obama and campaign for him. It's a big pickup. Obama also scored about 878 newspaper endorsements today and a potential VP candidate in the
female governor of Kansas (I don't know much of anything about her, but apparently she's a "rising star" in the Obama vein, and she'll be the Democrat rebuttal to Bush's SOTU speech).
We loyal Obama supporters have new life and enthusiasm after the results of SC, no doubt about that. But I still think the nomination is Hillary's to lose. I said that if Obama lost Nevada, he'd be toast. I still stand by that, although this rash of endorsements gives me pause. Obama's biggest problem now is that there just
isn't time to be able to cut into Hillary's huge leads in all these big states coming up on Super Tuesday. Though the nomination won't be decided on that day, if Hillary builds up a sizable enough delegate advantage, there's nothing Obama can do other than to hope he can remain close and have Edwards send his delegates to him and hope that the super delagates, which Hillary has a commanding lead in, break his way for some reason.
And that's where Ted Kennedy comes in. The Kennedy's are Democratic royalty. The name is gold and Ted is pretty much the godfather of liberal ideals. In other words, his opinion carries weight with old school democrats, minorities, and union members. This will be his last go round in terms of impacting an election. He's gone all in and is supporting the young upstart over the establishment and he's going to do everything he can possibly do to see that it happens.
Think about it for a second. If Ted Kennedy swoops down as the "savior" of Obama, not only will the Kennedy name be revered by the next generation of Democrats, but he'll go down in history as the man who changed the party forever. He'll be the man who laid the hammer to the Clinton dynasty single handedly, crushed it, and assured that the name "Kennedy" will always usurp the name "Clinton".
But can he
do it? This is going to end one of two ways: either Ted Kennedy will show Democrats that he is still relevant and is the true leader of the party, or he'll flame out on the campaign trail in embarrassment. He's drawn his line in the sand and it's going to be fascinating to see what happens in the next 10 days. Can the Kennedy name once again impact democratic politics? I think there is a lot riding on the line here. None of which I've heard anybody talk about.
Even more fascinating, can Ted Kennedy convince Al Gore to join the party? Whereas Kennedy has more of an impact on Obama's perception and gives him some "inside Washington" support, only Al Gore can have the sort of impact that would really make a ton of voters re-evaluate Hillary Clinton before Super Tuesday. Remember, there is a huge amount of democrats that were actively calling for Gore to get into the race. Everything he touches right now turns to gold. And he's got an incentive: Gore could potentially play kingmaker and crush his old boss at the same time.
Obama has
got to get that endorsement. Preferably on Tuesday, so as to completely overshadow Hillary's underhanded sneak attack in Florida by making a speech, thus putting pressure on Howard Dean to seat Florida at the convention (which is another reason the Clinton's are pissing off the establishment at the moment, and Dean in particular).
p.s. rumors are swirling that Obama might open a campaign office in Omaha and Lincoln for the Feb. 9th caucuses. If so, I'll probably be knocking on your door telling you to vote for the future :)
